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De'Anthony Melton

Golden State Warriors · G · #8

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
OverUnder1.5
Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2353 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 1.5

55%11 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 11 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

  1. at BOS, 2026-03-18: 1, hit, 23 min
  2. at DET, 2026-03-20: 0, hit, 23 min
  3. at ATL, 2026-03-21: 1, hit, 22 min
  4. at DAL, 2026-03-23: 3, missed, 23 min
  5. vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 4, missed, 28 min
  6. at DEN, 2026-03-29: 2, missed, 25 min
  7. vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 3, missed, 26 min
  8. vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 0, hit, 23 min
  9. vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 1, hit, 29 min
  10. vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 2, missed, 15 min
  11. at SAC, 2026-04-10: 1, hit, 28 min
  12. at LAC, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 19 min
  13. at LAL, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 21 min
  14. vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 20 min
  15. at PHX, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 27 min
  16. at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 19 min
  17. at MIN, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 20 min
  18. vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 21 min
  19. vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 28 min
  20. vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 28 min
Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayTeammate out

    Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)

    Under 1.5 without him: 22 of 41; with him: 8 of 16 (57 games as teammates)

  • TodayDefense vs guards

    MIA allow 3.1 steals a game to guards: 28th most of 30

    8 games

  • Teammate out

    Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)

    Under 1.5 without him: 11 of 19; with him: 7 of 12 (31 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Moses Moody: Out (knee)

    Under 1.5 without him: 12 of 23; with him: 18 of 34 (57 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Under 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

  • Stephen CurryG

  • Yaxel LendeborgF

  • Jimmy Butler IIIFOut

  • Kristaps PorzingisCOut

  • Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Melton didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; steals the last time Melton faced them: 4 (Dec 25, 2023)

Under 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Under 1.5

Average
1.5
±0 vs line
Median
1
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
55%
11 of 20
Price implies
70%
at −235
Books’ fair
65%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −235 the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Butler
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
−2503 bookspick'em only4/20
+1653 books−2351 book11/20
+4803 books—16/20
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
betPARX1 min ago+165Best−235Best
Bally Bet5 min ago+165Best—
BetRivers1 min ago+165Best—
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 9:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−240 → −235 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
De'Anthony Melton's full game log and splits