Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Wed, Nov 4 9:30 PM

Over only2.5

Over 2.5 Steals+Blocks, typical price +1551 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Steals+Blocks cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

at MIL, 2026-03-31: 1, missed, 11 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 4, cleared, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 4, cleared, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 3, cleared, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 5, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 4, cleared, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different yesterday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 19 of 58 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 2.5 without him: 17 of 58; with him: 3 of 4 (62 games as teammates)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs SAC

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Steals+Blocks: 5 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 39%; at +155
Books’ fair: —; no Under posted
Minutes: 21.9; 10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price of the Over and how many sportsbooks price it. No Under is posted.
Line	Over	L10
	−9101 book	10/10
	−1861 book	9/10
	+1551 book	5/10
	+3601 book	4/10

Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“3+ steals+blocks”), with no Under to take.

Compare 1 sportsbook at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over 2.5 Steals+Blocks, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5
Bally Bet6 hr ago	+155Best

Prices as of 9:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:43 PM ET.