Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under9.5

Over 9.5 Points, typical price −1041 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightMinutes
Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%
TonightGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 229.5 (4 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 9.5 without him: 0 of 4; with him: 25 of 58 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 9.5 without him: 23 of 58; with him: 2 of 4 (62 games as teammates)

30%3 of 10L10

Over 9.5 Points cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 on the road).

at MIL, 2026-03-31: 7, missed, 11 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 7, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 7, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 12, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 8, missed, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 18, cleared, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 20, cleared, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 9.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Points: 12 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 9.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 9.5

Average: 9.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 7; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Minutes: 21.9; 10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 9.5 48%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7501 book	—	8/10
−1041 book	−1281 book	3/10
+4201 book	—	2/10
+14001 book	—	1/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−104Best	−128Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

Over −102 → −104 since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits