Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under16.5

Over 16.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1301 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightMinutes
Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%
TonightGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 227.5 (4 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 16.5 without him: 0 of 4; with him: 27 of 58 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 16.5 without him: 25 of 58; with him: 2 of 4 (62 games as teammates)

40%4 of 10L10

Over 16.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 on the road).

at MIL, 2026-03-31: 11, missed, 11 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 10, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 14, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 21, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 16, missed, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 18, cleared, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 25, cleared, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 27, cleared, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 10.4–31.3 pts+reb.

Splits

Over 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 16.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Pts+Reb: 21 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 16.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 16.5

Average: 15.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 15; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −156

Research, not a pick. At −130 the price beats our fair −156, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1301 book	−1021 book	4/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−130Best	−102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Over isn't priced at 16.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits