Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Wed, Nov 4 9:30 PM

Over only10.5

Over 10.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1271 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 10.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

at MIL, 2026-03-31: 7, missed, 11 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 8, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 7, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 9, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 14, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 11, cleared, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 9, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 20, cleared, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 20, cleared, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 10.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different yesterday

Over 10.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 10.5 without him: 0 of 4; with him: 27 of 58 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 10.5 without him: 24 of 58; with him: 3 of 4 (62 games as teammates)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs SAC

Splits

Over 10.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 10.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Pts+Ast: 14 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 10.5 hit in 8 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 10.5

Average: 10.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 9; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: —; no Under posted
Minutes: 21.9; 10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price of the Over and how many sportsbooks price it. No Under is posted.
Line	Over	L10
	−17001 book	9/10
	−1751 book	4/10
	−1271 book	4/10
	+2551 book	2/10
	+9501 book	2/10
	+24001 book	0/10

Over only: sportsbooks post this as a yes bet (“11+ pts+ast”), with no Under to take.

Compare 1 sportsbook at 10.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over 10.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 10.5
DraftKings7 hr ago	−127Best

Prices as of 9:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

10.5

11.5 → 10.5 since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:43 PM ET.