Loading the player line…
Daniel Gafford
SAC @ DALKings @ Mavericks · Today 8:00 PM ET
The line
Over 1.5 Steals+Blocks
Typical price −1862 sportsbooks
Game log
Over 1.5Over 1.5 Steals+Blocks cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 steals+blocks.
Home and away
L10 · Over 1.5Hometonight
83%
5 of 6
Away
75%
3 of 4
L10 · Over 1.5 Steals+Blocks
- Average
- 2.8
- +1.3 vs line
- Median
- 2.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 65%
- −186, 2 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 60%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 64%
- estimate · fair −177
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −186 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −177, so it isn't worth it.
Compare 2 sportsbooks at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet2 hr ago | −186Best | — |
| betPARX2 hr ago | −186Best | +135Best |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET.
Every posted line
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −10002 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −1862 books | +1351 book | 8/10 | |
| +1502 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +3602 books | — | 4/10 |
What moved our number
Pace+3%