Daniel Gafford
SAC @ DAL · Mon, Nov 2 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 19.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 12.3–33.4 pts+reb+ast.
No matchup, rest or pace facts for this line yet: they come with the next publish.
L10 · Over 19.5
- Average
- 17.4
- −2.1 vs line
- Median
- 16.5
- −3 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −109
- Books’ fair
- 48%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −133
Research, not a pick. At −103 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −16801 book | — | 9/10 | |
| −3753 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1093 books | −1242 books | 4/10 | |
| +2503 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +7301 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +17401 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 19.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 19.5 | Under 19.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings27 hr ago | −103Best | −128 |
| betPARX27 hr ago | −109 | −121Best |
| Bally Bet27 hr ago | −110 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
19.5No opening line kept for this market yet.
No line history recorded for this market yet.
What moved our number
Pace+3%
This page last updated 8:12 PM ET.