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Daniel Gafford
SAC @ DALKings @ Mavericks · Today 8:00 PM ET
The line
Over 1.5 Assists
Typical price −1593 sportsbooks
Game log
Over 1.5Over 1.5 Assists cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 assists.
Home and away
L10 · Over 1.5Hometonight
67%
4 of 6
Away
50%
2 of 4
L10 · Over 1.5 Assists
- Average
- 1.8
- +0.3 vs line
- Median
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 61%
- −159, 3 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 57%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −138
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −159 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −138, so it isn't worth it.
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet25 min ago | −159Best | — |
| betPARX25 min ago | −159Best | +118Best |
| DraftKings25 min ago | −181 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET.
Every posted line
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1593 books | +1181 book | 6/10 | |
| +1753 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +4203 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +9003 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +19601 book | — | 0/10 |
What moved our number
Pace+3%