Daniel Gafford
SAC @ DAL · Mon, Nov 2 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 17.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 17.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 10.6–31.1 pts+reb.
No matchup, rest or pace facts for this line yet: they come with the next publish.
L10 · Over 17.5
- Average
- 15.6
- −1.9 vs line
- Median
- 15
- −2.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −110
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −129
Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −9001 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −2253 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1241 book | −1061 book | 4/10 | |
| −1102 books | −1241 book | 4/10 | |
| +1433 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +4003 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +12201 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 17.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 17.5 | Under 17.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet23 hr ago | −110Best | — |
| betPARX23 hr ago | −110Best | −124Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
17.5No opening line kept for this market yet.
No line history recorded for this market yet.
What moved our number
Pace+3%
This page last updated 8:12 PM ET.