Daniel Gafford
SAC @ DAL · Mon, Nov 2 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 9.5
30%3 of 10L10
Over 9.5 Points cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 5.1–20.5 points.
No matchup, rest or pace facts for this line yet: they come with the next publish.
L10 · Over 9.5
- Average
- 9.3
- −0.2 vs line
- Median
- 7
- −2.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −129
Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −20002 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −5303 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −2353 books | — | 4/10 | |
| −1184 books | −1093 books | 3/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 3/10 | |
| +1553 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +2702 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 9.5 | Under 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet14 hr ago | −118Best | — |
| betPARX14 hr ago | −118Best | −112 |
| DraftKings14 hr ago | −119 | −107Best |
| Pinnacle14 hr ago | −122 | −109 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
9.5No opening line kept for this market yet.
No line history recorded for this market yet.
What moved our number
Pace+3%
This page last updated 8:12 PM ET.