Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1293 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 2, cleared, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 2, cleared, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 26 min
at SA, 2026-11-04: 1, cleared, 18 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 0.5 without him: 32 of 59; with him: 3 of 4 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 3.3 steals a game to forwards: 13th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 25.2 min · 2026–27: 23.3 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against UTAH in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 5 of 8 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Gafford didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; steals the last time Gafford faced them: 0 (Jan 8)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −129
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Minutes: 22.6; 10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 52%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1293 books	−1061 book	7/10
	+3403 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−129Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−129Best	−106Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−129Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: No move since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits