Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Wed, Nov 4 9:30 PM

Over Under8.5

Over 8.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1251 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 8.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

at MIL, 2026-03-31: 4, missed, 11 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 4, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 7, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 11, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 11, cleared, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 13, cleared, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 9, cleared, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different yesterday

Over 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 8.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 25 of 58 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 8.5 without him: 23 of 58; with him: 3 of 4 (62 games as teammates)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs SAC

Splits

Over 8.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 8.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Reb+Ast: 11 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 8.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 8.5

Average: 7.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 7.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Minutes: 21.9; 10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11001 book	—	7/10
−1951 book	—	5/10
−1251 book	pick'em only	4/10
+1251 book	—	3/10
+2901 book	—	1/10
+9001 book	—	0/10
+22001 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
DraftKings7 hr ago	−125Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

9.5 → 8.5 since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:43 PM ET.