Daniel Gafford
UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 18.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 18.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11–32.7 pts+reb+ast.
What's different today
Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 18.5 without him: 25 of 59; with him: 2 of 4 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 77.4 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 4th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 25.2 min · 2026–27: 23.3 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA
Splits
Over 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against UTAH in his last 10; Over 18.5 cleared in 4 of 8 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 18.5 · L10Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Dereck Lively IICOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs UTAH
Gafford didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; pts+reb+ast the last time Gafford faced them: 7 (Jan 8)
Over 18.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against UTAH on record
L10 · Over 18.5
- Average
- 16.6
- −1.9 vs line
- Median
- 16.5
- −2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −134
Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2865 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1851 book | +1401 book | 5/10 | |
| −1451 book | +1101 book | 5/10 | |
| −1146 books | −1185 books | 5/10 | |
| +1085 books | −1451 book | 4/10 | |
| +1351 book | −1801 book | 3/10 | |
| +2855 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 18.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 18.5 | Under 18.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings6 min ago | −109Best | −121 |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −114 | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −114 | −118 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −114 | −118 |
| Bovada6 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel1 min ago | −128 | −104Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 1:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
18.5Over: −125 → −114 since first seen