Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Wed, Nov 4 9:30 PM

Over Under16.5

Over 16.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1023 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 16.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 on the road).

at MIL, 2026-03-31: 11, missed, 11 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 10, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 14, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 21, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 16, missed, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 18, cleared, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 25, cleared, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 27, cleared, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 10.4–31.3 pts+reb.

What's different yesterday

Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayMinutes
Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 16.5 without him: 0 of 4; with him: 27 of 58 (62 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 16.5 without him: 25 of 58; with him: 2 of 4 (62 games as teammates)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs SAC

Splits

Over 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 16.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
Naji MarshallF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Pts+Reb: 21 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 16.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 16.5

Average: 15.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 15; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at −102
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At +102 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11002 books	—	8/10
−1723 books	+1351 book	5/10
−1351 book	+1051 book	5/10
−1023 books	−1292 books	4/10
+1953 books	—	3/10
+4802 books	—	2/10
+12002 books	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
Bally Bet5 hr ago	+102Best	—
DraftKings5 hr ago	−102	−129
Bovada5 hr ago	−105	−125Best

Prices as of 9:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Over: −128 → −102 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:43 PM ET.