Daniel Gafford
UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 16.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 16.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.4–30.6 pts+reb.
What's different today
Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 16.5 without him: 25 of 59; with him: 2 of 4 (63 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 25.2 min · 2026–27: 23.3 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA
Game lines
DAL −6.5 · total 225.5 (7 sportsbooks)
DAL's games this season closed at 231.5 on average (8 games)
Splits
Over 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against UTAH in his last 10; Over 16.5 cleared in 4 of 8 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 16.5 · L10Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingGDay-To-Day
Naji MarshallF
Dereck Lively IICOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs UTAH
Gafford didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; pts+reb the last time Gafford faced them: 7 (Jan 8)
Over 16.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against UTAH on record
L10 · Over 16.5
- Average
- 14.9
- −1.6 vs line
- Median
- 15
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −129
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −140
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −10802 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −2055 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1651 book | +1251 book | 5/10 | |
| −1295 books | −1053 books | 4/10 | |
| −1022 books | −1302 books | 4/10 | |
| +1485 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +4822 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 16.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 16.5 | Under 16.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −115Best | −111 |
| Bovada4 min ago | −125 | −105Best |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −129 | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −129 | −105Best |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −129 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:36 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
16.5Over: −130 → −129 since first seen