Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1136 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

30%3 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 8, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 7, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 22 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 9, missed, 15 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 14, cleared, 23 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 11, missed, 26 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 9, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 20, cleared, 29 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 20, cleared, 26 min
at SA, 2026-11-04: 3, missed, 18 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 11.5 without him: 20 of 59; with him: 1 of 4 (63 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 25.2 min · 2026–27: 23.3 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA
Game lines
DAL −6.5 · total 225.5 (7 sportsbooks)
DAL's games this season closed at 231.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against UTAH in his last 10; Over 11.5 cleared in 4 of 8 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingGDay-To-Day
Naji MarshallF
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Gafford didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; pts+ast the last time Gafford faced them: 0 (Jan 8)

Over 11.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 10.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 9; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Minutes: 22.6; 10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 11.5 48%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20001 book	—	8/10
−2005 books	+1501 book	4/10
−1451 book	+1101 book	4/10
−1136 books	−1254 books	3/10
+2004 books	—	2/10
+8101 book	—	2/10
+22001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+102Best	−136
Bovada3 min ago	−105	−125
DraftKings4 min ago	−107	−122
Bally Bet3 min ago	−113	—
betPARX3 min ago	−113	−120Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−113	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

Over: −114 → −113 since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits