Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

POR @ PHX · Live

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2051 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

67%4 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 4 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs DEN, 2025-02-27: 2, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2025-03-01: 2, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 2, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 2, cleared, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 1, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 2, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 0, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 2, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 0, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 1, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 1, cleared, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 0, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 2, cleared, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 0, missed, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 2, cleared, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
YesterdayDefense vs guards
PHX allow 6.0 steals a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
5 games
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Over 0.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 2 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Steals: 1 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 67%; at −205
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −165

Research, not a pick. At −205 the price is worse than our fair −165, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−2051 book	pick'em only	4/6
	+2201 book	—	2/6

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet10 hr ago	−205Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.