Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

POR @ PHX · Live

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1454 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

67%4 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs DEN, 2025-02-27: 4, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2025-03-01: 6, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 5, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 3, missed, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 7, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 5, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 3, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 6, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 10, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 1, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 3, missed, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 3, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 3, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 2, missed, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 5, cleared, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 5, cleared, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1.1–7.8 rebounds.

What's different yesterday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Over 3.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 2 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
PHX allow 17.0 rebounds a game to guards: 8th most of 30
5 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)

Splits

Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Rebounds: 3 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)

Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Over 3.5

Average: 4.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 5; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 59%; at −145
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −154, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−12503 books	—	6/6
−3754 books	—	5/6
−1454 books	+1093 books	4/6
+1404 books	−1851 book	4/6
+2502 books	—	1/6
+4604 books	—	0/6
+7502 books	—	0/6

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Pinnacle11 hr ago	−136Best	+104
DraftKings11 hr ago	−144	+109
Bovada11 hr ago	−145	+110Best
Bally Bet11 hr ago	−152	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −137 → −145 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.