Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

POR @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under8.5

Under 8.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1182 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 8.5 without him: 2 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 8.5 without him: 0 of 2; with him: 2 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at DEN
3rd straight road game

33%2 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 8.5 Reb+Ast hit in 2 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs DEN, 2025-02-27: 8, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2025-03-01: 12, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 9, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 8, hit, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 11, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 9, missed, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 14, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 16, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 18, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 3, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 7, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 10, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 8, hit, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 4, hit, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 9, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 7, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 9, missed, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 4, hit, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 9, missed, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 12, missed, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3.9–11.3 reb+ast.

Splits

Under 8.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 8.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Reb+Ast: 9 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)

Under 8.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 8.5

Average: 8.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 9; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 33%; 2 of 6
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair +100

Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair +100, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−18001 book	—	1/6
−2101 book	—	2/6
−1212 books	−1182 books	2/6
+1351 book	—	5/6
+3301 book	—	5/6
+12001 book	—	6/6

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
DraftKings7 min ago	−121	−109Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−110Best	−118
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

Under −114 → −118 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits