Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price +1232 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Shaedon Sharpe playing; Sharpe is out tonight. Without him: Under 2.5 in 3 of 6.

TonightTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
TonightDefense vs guards
PHX allow 11.0 threes made a game to guards: the most of 30
5 games
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 2.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 2 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)

50%3 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 3 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs DEN, 2025-02-27: 3, missed, 35 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2025-03-01: 4, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 2, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 5, missed, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 4, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 1, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 2, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 2, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 6, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 2, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 2, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 2, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 1, hit, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 0, hit, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 6, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

3-Pointers Made: 6 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 2.5

Average: 2.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 3 of 6
Price implies: 45%; at +123
Books’ fair: 42%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At +123 the price beats our fair −106, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−39802 books	—	0/6
−5162 books	—	2/6
−1682 books	+1231 book	3/6
+1442 books	−1881 book	4/6
+3322 books	—	5/6
+6702 books	—	5/6
+13002 books	—	6/6

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings11 min ago	−162Best	+123Best
FanDuel6 min ago	−174	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits