Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #0

POR @ PHX · Tomorrow 9:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1022 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 4.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 3 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
PHX allow 14.6 assists a game to guards: 21st most of 30
5 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)

67%4 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 4 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs DEN, 2025-02-27: 4, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2025-03-01: 6, missed, 36 min (not counted)
at ATL, 2025-03-04: 4, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2025-03-05: 5, missed, 27 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2025-03-08: 4, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2025-03-09: 4, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-03-11: 11, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs LAL, 2025-03-13: 10, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-03-15: 8, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2025-03-16: 2, hit, 29 min (not counted)
at GS, 2025-03-18: 4, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at IND, 2025-04-22: 7, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-25: 5, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2025-04-27: 2, hit, 6 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 6, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 4, hit, 31 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 2, hit, 30 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 4, hit, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 6, missed, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Assists: 6 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 4.5

Average: 4; −0.5 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 50%; at −102
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−40001 book	—	0/6
−7901 book	—	2/6
−2772 books	—	2/6
−1302 books	−1022 books	4/6
+1612 books	—	4/6
+2951 book	—	6/6
+5742 books	—	6/6

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings13 min ago	−132	+100Best
FanDuel3 min ago	−128Best	−104
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:58 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under −106 → −102 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Damian Lillard's full game log and splits