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Damian Lillard
POR @ DENTrail Blazers @ Nuggets · Today 9:00 PM ET
The line
Over 0.5 Steals
Typical price −2204 sportsbooksbest −179
Game log
Over 0.5Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 steals.
Home and away
L10 · Over 0.5Home
60%
3 of 5
Awaytonight
60%
3 of 5
L10 · Over 0.5 Steals
- Average
- 0.9
- +0.4 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 69%
- −220, 4 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 62%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 61%
- estimate · fair −159
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −179 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −159, so it isn't worth it.
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings44 min ago | −179Best | +134 |
| Bally Bet40 min ago | −220 | — |
| betPARX40 min ago | −220 | +160Best |
| BetRivers37 min ago | −220 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:07 PM ET.
Every posted line
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2204 books | +1462 books | 6/10 | |
| +2054 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +8101 book | — | 0/10 | |
| +20001 book | — | 0/10 |
What moved our number
Pace+2%