Damian Lillard
POR @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM
What's different today
Under 25.5 · facts from past games, not a pick4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Shaedon Sharpe playing; Sharpe is out today. Without him: Under 25.5 in 3 of 6.
TodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 25.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 25.5 without him: 0 of 2; with him: 3 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at DEN
3rd straight road game
Game log against Under 25.5
50%3 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe
Under 25.5 Pts+Ast hit in 3 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 10–27.5 pts+ast.
Splits
Under 25.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 25.5 · L20Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs PHX
Pts+Ast: 31 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)
Under 25.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against PHX on record
L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 25.5
- Average
- 23.3
- −2.2 vs line
- Median
- 25.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 3 of 6
- Price implies
- 51%
- at −106
- Books’ fair
- 48%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −143
Research, not a pick. At −105 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −22001 book | — | 1/6 | |
| −4511 book | — | 1/6 | |
| −1532 books | +1151 book | 2/6 | |
| −1253 books | −1063 books | 3/6 | |
| −1051 book | −1251 book | 5/6 | |
| +1721 book | — | 5/6 | |
| +4251 book | — | 6/6 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 25.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 25.5 | Under 25.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada2 min ago | −125 | −105Best |
| DraftKings2 min ago | −124Best | −106 |
| FanDuel1 min ago | −125 | −106 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:20 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
25.5−112 → −106 since first seen