Ajay Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #25

CLE @ OKC · Live

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −1493 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

75%9 of 12L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 9 of 12 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at LAL, 2026-04-07: 1, hit, 21 min
at LAC, 2026-04-08: 1, hit, 24 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 2, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 2, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 32 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 34 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 0, hit, 28 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 0, hit, 30 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 3, missed, 30 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 4, missed, 33 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 2, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 4, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 0, hit, 17 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 23 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 5, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 28 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 26 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 1.5 without him: 24 of 40; with him: 31 of 45 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 8 of 12; with him: 47 of 73 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 50 of 79 (85 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jaylin Williams: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 8 of 16; with him: 47 of 69 (85 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut
Jaylin WilliamsFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Steals: 0 in 35 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Jalen Williams · Under 1.5

Average: 0.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 0; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 75%; 9 of 12
Price implies: 60%; at −149
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −149 the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4093 books	—	7/12
+1183 books	−1491 book	9/12
+3603 books	—	10/12
+8802 books	—	11/12
+19801 book	—	12/12

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings13 hr ago	+112	−149Best
Bally Bet13 hr ago	+123Best	—
Bovada13 hr ago	+118	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −158 → −149 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Ajay Mitchell's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.