Every play shown
Our price beat the closing price on 60% of 292 plays. Exactly the plays the list showed: each counted once, when it first appeared, at the price it showed, whether it sat in the top 10 or only under “see all”.
Price picks first: every price above the market we showed, counted once at the price shown, wins and losses alike. The first test is whether that price beat the market's closing price; the money is beside it.
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v4 ran privately before launch. Every pick here was logged by the system at the time, before its game started, at the price shown. None has been removed or re-priced since.
This record starts fresh with v4. v3's record is kept, unchanged, in the archive.
Recomputed every five minutes from v4's own pick logs; last changed Nov 2, 8:19 PM ET.
Our price beat the closing price on 60% of 292 plays. Exactly the plays the list showed: each counted once, when it first appeared, at the price it showed, whether it sat in the top 10 or only under “see all”.
Over and Under (totals and props), plus money (+100 or longer) and minus money. Each judged on its own sample.
| Plays | Shown | Beat the close, 95% range | Average vs close | Won–lost | Units | Return each, 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game lines | ||||||
| Over | 1 1 pending | 100% of 1 21–100% | +7.7¢ of 1 no range yet | — | — | — |
| Under | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Plus money | 1 1 pending | 100% of 1 21–100% | +7.7¢ of 1 no range yet | — | — | — |
| Minus money | 2 2 pending | 100% of 1 21–100% | +0.3¢ of 1 no range yet | — | — | — |
| Props | ||||||
| Over | 227 227 pending | 54% of 156 47–62% | +0.4¢ of 156 no range yet | — | — | — |
| Under | 174 174 pending | 65% of 134 57–72% | +1.6¢ of 134 | |||
| Sport | Plays | Beat the close, 95% range | Average vs close | Won–lost | Units | Return each, 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 404 404 pending | 60% of 292 54–65% | +0.9¢ of 292 no range yet | — | — | — |
| NBA | 392 392 pending | 59% of 288 53–65% | +0.9¢ of 288 no range yet | — | — | — |
| NFL | 5 5 pending | — | — | — | — | — |
| NHL | 4 4 pending | 100% of 2 34–100% | +1.5¢ of 2 no range yet | — | — | — |
| CBB | 3 3 pending | 100% of 2 34–100% | +4.0¢ of 2 no range yet | — | — | — |
Grey rows have fewer than 30 plays with a closing price and fewer than 50 graded: too few to call either way.
Newest game first; losses and voids included. Each play shows the price it was shown at and how many sportsbooks paid it.
No play graded yet: 404 waiting on a result. Each is graded when its game goes final.
Our price beat the closing price on 60% of 48 bets. The picks Today shows under “Bets worth making”. Leans are shown there but not recommended, so they are not counted.
| Sport | Picks | Beat the close, 95% range | Average vs close | Won–lost | Units | Return each, 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 602 103 pending | 69% of 500 65–73% | +1.6¢ of 500 +1.2¢ to +2.1¢ | 258–240–1 | −6.9u | −1.4% of 499 −7.0% to +4.3% |
| NBA | 263 53 pending | 66% of 185 59–73% | +2.3¢ of 185 +1.6¢ to +2.9¢ | 104–106 | −9.8u | −4.7% of 210 −12.5% to +3.2% |
| CFB | 147 1 pending | 72% of 131 64–79% | +1.1¢ of 131 −0.2¢ to +2.4¢ | 75–71 | −2.4u | −1.6% of 146 −11.5% to +8.2% |
| NHL | 76 2 pending | 68% of 76 57–78% | +0.9¢ of 76 |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| Plus money | 253 253 pending | 69% of 176 62–76% | +1.9¢ of 176 no range yet | — | — | — |
| Minus money | 148 148 pending | 44% of 114 35–53% | −0.6¢ of 114 no range yet | — | — | — |
Our price beat the closing price on 69% of 500 game-line price signals. Every moneyline, spread and total where a sportsbook paid more than the market’s fair price by more than the noise (the looser v1 rule), whether or not the list showed it. Kept so nothing is hidden.
Our price beat the closing price on 54% of 9,694 prop price signals. The same for player props. Props are never posted as picks: this is research, kept so nothing is hidden.
| 38–36 |
| −6.2u |
| −8.3% of 74 −26.5% to +9.9% |
| CBB | 48 47 pending | 76% of 42 61–87% | +2.1¢ of 42 no range yet | 0–1 | −1.0u | −100.0% of 1 no range yet |
| NFL | 41 | 69% of 39 54–81% | +1.2¢ of 39 −2.3¢ to +4.7¢ | 26–15 | +8.8u | +21.5% of 41 −39.8% to +82.8% |
| WNBA | 16 | 75% of 16 51–90% | +2.7¢ of 16 0¢ to +5.4¢ | 8–8 | +0.1u | +0.3% of 16 −53.2% to +53.9% |
| MLB | 11 | 55% of 11 28–79% | +1.0¢ of 11 −4.1¢ to +6.1¢ | 7–3–1 | +3.5u | +32.1% of 11 −24.6% to +88.8% |
Grey rows have fewer than 30 game-line price signals with a closing price and fewer than 50 graded: too few to call either way.