Thomas Chabot

Ottawa Senators · D · #72

OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2243 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
TodayDefense vs defensemen
BUF allow 2.14 assists a game to defensemen: 3rd most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 2.00, 10th most
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 3 of 4 (12 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 17 of 24 (27 games as teammates)

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at DET, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 26.3 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-08: 0, hit, 29.3 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 28.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-12: 1, missed, 27.9 min
vs STL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 27.8 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 24.6 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 12.1 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 22.6 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 19 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 19.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 7 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Chabot didn't play the Apr 2 meeting; assists the last time Chabot faced them: 0 (Dec 23, 2025)

Under 0.5 hit in 7 of 8 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −224
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −173

Research, not a pick. At −224 the price is worse than our fair −173, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1643 books	−2241 book	6/10
	+9002 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	+164Best	−224Best
Bovada5 min ago	+164Best	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+164Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Thomas Chabot's full game log and splits