Thomas Chabot

Ottawa Senators · D · #72

OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1251 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 3 of 4 (12 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 13 of 24 (27 games as teammates)
Back from an absence
Today's game is his 4th back after missing 4 games in a row (Oct 21 – Oct 27)
Over 1.5 since: 2 of 3

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at DET, 2026-10-06: 5, cleared, 26.3 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-08: 4, cleared, 29.3 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-10: 3, cleared, 28.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-12: 2, cleared, 27.9 min
vs STL, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 27.8 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 24.6 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 12.1 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 2, cleared, 22.6 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 19 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 19.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 4 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Chabot didn't play the Apr 2 meeting; shots on goal the last time Chabot faced them: 1 (Dec 23, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Time on ice: 23.8; 10 games · 23.1 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 51%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5501 book	—	8/10
−1251 book	−1101 book	6/10
+2351 book	—	3/10
+6501 book	—	2/10
+17001 book	—	1/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings2 min ago	−125Best	−110Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: No move since first seen

Thomas Chabot's full game log and splits