Brandon Hagel

Tampa Bay Lightning · LW · #38

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2656 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 46 of 78 (91 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 52 of 81 (84 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 191 of 222 (.860) over his last 10 games · 6 of DET's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 6.53 points a game to forwards: 14th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.60, 15th most

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 at home).

vs MIN, 2026-10-08: 1, cleared, 22.9 min
at NYI, 2026-10-10: 4, cleared, 21.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 21 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 23.4 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 18.9 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 20.6 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 22.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 21.8 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 20.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L10

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Brayden PointC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve
Zemgus GirgensonsCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Hagel didn't play the Apr 13 meeting; points the last time Hagel faced them: 0 (Mar 12)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 73%; at −265
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −184

Research, not a pick. At −215 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −184, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2656 books	+1552 books	7/10
+1755 books	—	3/10
+5255 books	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings9 min ago	−215Best	+155Best
Pinnacle9 min ago	−215Best	+155Best
Bally Bet9 min ago	−265	—
betPARX1 min ago	−265	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−265	—
FanDueljust now	−265	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:36 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

Brandon Hagel's full game log and splits