Justin HerbertQuestionable

Los Angeles Chargers · QB · #10

LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM

Over Under225.5

Over 225.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 225.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 273, cleared, 38 attempts + carries
at NE, 2026-01-11: 216, missed, 41 attempts + carries
vs ARI, 2026-09-13: 238, cleared, 32 attempts + carries
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 194, missed, 30 attempts + carries
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 243, cleared, 38 attempts + carries
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 229, cleared, 37 attempts + carries
vs DEN, 2026-10-11: 175, missed, 30 attempts + carries
at KC, 2026-10-18: 230, cleared, 42 attempts + carries
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 272, cleared, 36 attempts + carries
vs HOU, 2026-11-08: 200, missed, 24 attempts + carries

ClearedMissedThe 225.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 166.9–282.2 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Monday

Over 225.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 34 attempts + carries · 2026: 33.6 (8 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 8 vs HOU
Game lines
LAC +4 · total 38.5 (5 sportsbooks)
LAC's games this season closed at 44.4 on average (8 games)
BAL injuries
Kyle Hamilton (S, Questionable, 6.9 tackles); Jaylinn Hawkins (S, Questionable, 4.5 tackles); Nate Wiggins (CB, Questionable, 3.9 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)

Splits

Over 225.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL in his last 10; Over 225.5 cleared in 2 of 2 against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BAL

Pass+Rush Yards: 247 in 40 attempts + carries, Nov 25, 2024 (home)

Over 225.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against BAL on record

L10 · Over 225.5

Average: 227; +1.5 vs line
Median: 229.5; +4 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4553 books	—	9/10
−2403 books	—	8/10
−1173 books	—	6/10
−1143 books	−1152 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1603 books	—	2/10
+2953 books	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 225.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 225.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 225.5	Under 225.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−114Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−115	−115

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

225.5

226.5 → 225.5 since first seen