Justin HerbertQuestionable

Los Angeles Chargers · QB · #10

LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM

Over Under29.5

Over 29.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1123 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 29.5 Passing Attempts cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 32, cleared, 32 attempts
at NE, 2026-01-11: 31, cleared, 31 attempts
vs ARI, 2026-09-13: 27, missed, 27 attempts
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 27, missed, 27 attempts
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 34, cleared, 34 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 31, cleared, 31 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-10-11: 24, missed, 24 attempts
at KC, 2026-10-18: 37, cleared, 37 attempts
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 32, cleared, 32 attempts
vs HOU, 2026-11-08: 23, missed, 23 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 29.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 22.2–37.6 passing attempts.

What's different on Monday

Over 29.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
BAL allow 31.9 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 21st most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30.7 attempts · 2026: 29.4 (8 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 8 vs HOU
Game lines
LAC +4 · total 38.5 (5 sportsbooks)
LAC's games this season closed at 44.4 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 29.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL in his last 10; Over 29.5 cleared in 2 of 2 against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BAL

Passing Attempts: 36 in 36 attempts, Nov 25, 2024 (home)

Over 29.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against BAL on record

L10 · Over 29.5

Average: 29.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 31; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −112
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −104

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7703 books	—	9/10
−3753 books	—	8/10
−2003 books	—	6/10
−1123 books	−1172 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1483 books	—	4/10
+2353 books	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 29.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 29.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 29.5	Under 29.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−112Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−112Best	−117Best
BetRivers6 min ago	−113	−117Best

Prices as of 6:27 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

29.5

Over: −117 → −112 since first seen