Justin HerbertQuestionable

Los Angeles Chargers · QB · #10

LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM

Over Under19.5

Under 19.5 Completions, typical price −1073 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 19.5 Completions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 21, missed, 32 attempts
at NE, 2026-01-11: 19, hit, 31 attempts
vs ARI, 2026-09-13: 17, hit, 27 attempts
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 15, hit, 27 attempts
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 20, missed, 34 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 19, hit, 31 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-10-11: 14, hit, 24 attempts
at KC, 2026-10-18: 22, missed, 37 attempts
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 24, missed, 32 attempts
vs HOU, 2026-11-08: 13, hit, 23 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 19.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 12.4–25.3 completions.

What's different on Monday

Under 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
BAL allow 20.8 completions a game to quarterbacks: 20th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30.7 attempts · 2026: 29.4 (8 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 8 vs HOU
Game lines
LAC +4 · total 38.5 (5 sportsbooks)
LAC's games this season closed at 44.4 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL in his last 10; Under 19.5 hit in 0 of 2 against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BAL

Completions: 21 in 36 attempts, Nov 25, 2024 (home)

Under 19.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against BAL on record

L10 · Under 19.5

Average: 18.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 19; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −107
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At −107 the price beats our fair −112, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	3/10
−2653 books	—	4/10
−1223 books	−1071 book	6/10
+1633 books	—	8/10
+3003 books	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
betPARX6 min ago	−122Best	−107Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	−122Best	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−122Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:27 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

−103 → −107 since first seen