Justice Hill

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #43

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under31.5

Over 31.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1184 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 31.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

at MIA, 2025-10-30: 15, missed, 3 carries + targets
at MIN, 2025-11-09: 13, missed, 3 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 28, missed, 7 carries + targets
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 18, missed, 4 carries + targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 33, cleared, 5 carries + targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 25, missed, 4 carries + targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 78, cleared, 8 carries + targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 9, missed, 3 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 33, cleared, 7 carries + targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 35, cleared, 11 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 31.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 10.4–66.8 rush+rec yards.

What's different today

Over 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs running backs
JAX allow 94.0 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: the fewest of 32
7 games
TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Out, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 31.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 17 of 36; with another BAL quarterback: 4 of 8
Carries + targets
Last 3: 7 carries + targets · 2026: 6.1 (8 games)
Target share: 17% last 3 games · 12% over 7 games this season

Splits

Over 31.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 31.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Rush+Rec Yards: 23 in 6 carries + targets, Dec 17, 2023 (away)

Over 31.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 31.5

Average: 28.7; −2.8 vs line
Median: 26.5; −5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −122, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2153 books	—	6/10
−1184 books	−1113 books	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
−1201 book	−1101 book	2/10
+2753 books	—	1/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−115Best	−111
Bally Bet5 min ago	−118	—
betPARX2 min ago	−118	−110Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−118	−112

Prices as of 3:06 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

33.5 → 31.5 since first seen