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Justice HillQuestionable

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #43

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
OverUnder2.5
Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price +1136 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightQuarterback

    Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Questionable, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 2.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 14 of 35; with another BAL quarterback: 5 of 7

  • TonightTargets

    Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 3.6 (7 games) · up 39%

    Target share: 17% last 3 games · 12% over 7 games this season

  • TonightRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week

  • Defense vs running backs

    JAX allow 5.3 receptions a game to running backs: 6th most of 32

    7 games

Game log against Over 2.5

40%4 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

  1. vs LAR, 2025-10-12: 5, cleared, 6 targets
  2. at MIA, 2025-10-30: 2, missed, 2 targets
  3. at MIN, 2025-11-09: 1, missed, 2 targets
  4. at IND, 2026-09-13: 1, missed, 1 targets
  5. vs NO, 2026-09-20: 2, missed, 2 targets
  6. vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 2, missed, 3 targets
  7. at ATL, 2026-10-11: 2, missed, 4 targets
  8. at CLE, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 3 targets
  9. vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  10. at BUF, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 8 targets
ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Count only

Over 2.5 · L10

Last vs JAX

Receptions: 0 in 1 targets, Dec 17, 2023 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average
2.5
±0 vs line
Median
2
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
47%
at +113
Books’ fair
45%
margin removed
Targets
3.5
10 games · 3.4 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 45%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−16674 books—10/10
−2754 books—8/10
+1136 books−1474 books4/10
+2754 books—2/10
+6504 books—1/10
+9201 book—0/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
Pinnacle3 min ago+116Best−154
Bally Bet3 min ago+114—
betPARX4 min ago+114−148
BetRivers4 min ago+112—
FanDuel3 min ago+110−146
Bovada3 min ago+100−130Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 10:16 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over +118 → +113 since first seen

Justice Hill's full game log and splits