Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under27.5

Over 27.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1146 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 27.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 33, cleared, 11 carries
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 66, cleared, 12 carries
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 23, missed, 6 carries
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 69, cleared, 14 carries
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 22, missed, 8 carries
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 4, missed, 5 carries
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 121, cleared, 10 carries
at LV, 2026-10-18: 1, missed, 5 carries
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 30, cleared, 7 carries
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 15, missed, 6 carries

ClearedMissedThe 27.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–89.5 rushing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 27.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
NYJ allow 15.4 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks: 16th most of 32
9 games
Carries
Last 3: 6 carries · 2026: 7.6 (8 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN
Game lines
BUF −8 · total 51 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 27.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Over 27.5 cleared in 1 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Allen didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; rushing yards the last time Allen faced them: 59 (Sep 14, 2025)

Over 27.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Over 27.5

Average: 38.4; +10.9 vs line
Median: 26.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −102

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4401 book	—	8/10
−2304 books	—	7/10
−1521 book	—	5/10
−1146 books	−1145 books	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1024 books	—	5/10
+1954 books	—	3/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks at 27.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 27.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 27.5	Under 27.5
Bally Bet7 min ago	−114Best	—
betPARX7 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
FanDuel7 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers7 min ago	−115	−115
Bovada7 min ago	−115	−115

Prices as of 5:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

27.5

28.5 → 27.5 since first seen