Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under266.5

Under 266.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 266.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 306, missed, 46 attempts + carries
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 349, missed, 51 attempts + carries
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 357, missed, 35 attempts + carries
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 317, missed, 45 attempts + carries
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 226, hit, 34 attempts + carries
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 257, hit, 38 attempts + carries
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 331, missed, 29 attempts + carries
at LV, 2026-10-18: 256, hit, 38 attempts + carries
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 319, missed, 41 attempts + carries
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 249, hit, 37 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 266.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 206.1–327.7 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 266.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 38.7 attempts + carries · 2026: 37.1 (8 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN
Game lines
BUF −8 · total 51 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.3 on average (8 games)
NYJ injuries
Nahshon Wright (CB, Questionable, 4.4 tackles); Joseph Ossai (DE, Questionable, 3.9 tackles); Trevin Wallace (LB, Questionable, 3.7 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 1 more on the report

Splits

Under 266.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Under 266.5 hit in 3 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Allen didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; pass+rush yards the last time Allen faced them: 207 (Sep 14, 2025)

Under 266.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Under 266.5

Average: 296.7; +30.2 vs line
Median: 311.5; +45 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −101

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4003 books	—	0/10
−1823 books	—	2/10
−1143 books	−1152 books	4/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	4/10
—	—	4/10
+1103 books	—	4/10
+2003 books	—	4/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 266.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 266.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 266.5	Under 266.5
betPARX10 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers10 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet10 min ago	−114Best	—

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

266.5

263.5 → 266.5 since first seen