Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1363 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 11, missed, 11 carries
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 12, missed, 12 carries
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 6, hit, 6 carries
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 14, missed, 14 carries
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 8, missed, 8 carries
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 5, hit, 5 carries
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 10, missed, 10 carries
at LV, 2026-10-18: 5, hit, 5 carries
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 7, hit, 7 carries
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 6, hit, 6 carries

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3.1–13.4 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Carries
Last 3: 6 carries · 2026: 7.6 (8 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN
Game lines
BUF −8 · total 51 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.3 on average (8 games)
NYJ injuries
Nahshon Wright (CB, Questionable, 4.4 tackles); Joseph Ossai (DE, Questionable, 3.9 tackles); Trevin Wallace (LB, Questionable, 3.7 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 1 more on the report

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 3 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Allen didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; rushing attempts the last time Allen faced them: 6 (Sep 14, 2025)

Under 7.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 8.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 7.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −113

Research, not a pick. At −136 the price is worse than our fair −113, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2953 books	—	2/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1053 books	−1361 book	5/10
+2803 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
betPARX10 min ago	+105Best	−136Best
Bally Bet10 min ago	+105Best	—
BetRivers10 min ago	+104	—

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

−124 → −136 since first seen