Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under233.5

Over 233.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 233.5 Passing Yards cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 273, cleared, 35 attempts
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 283, cleared, 39 attempts
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 334, cleared, 29 attempts
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 248, cleared, 31 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 204, missed, 26 attempts
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 253, cleared, 33 attempts
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 210, missed, 19 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-18: 255, cleared, 33 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 289, cleared, 34 attempts
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 234, cleared, 31 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 233.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 179.7–295 passing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 233.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
NYJ allow 212.1 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 28th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.7 attempts · 2026: 29.5 (8 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN
Game lines
BUF −8 · total 51 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 233.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Over 233.5 cleared in 1 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Allen didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; passing yards the last time Allen faced them: 148 (Sep 14, 2025)

Over 233.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Over 233.5

Average: 258.3; +24.8 vs line
Median: 254; +20.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6703 books	—	10/10
−3154 books	—	10/10
−1484 books	—	8/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	8/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	7/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	7/10
+1334 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 233.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 233.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 233.5	Under 233.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−115Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers6 min ago	−117	−114
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

233.5

228.5 → 233.5 since first seen