Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · #17

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Over 28.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1184 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 28.5 Passing Attempts cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 35, cleared, 35 attempts
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 39, cleared, 39 attempts
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 29, cleared, 29 attempts
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 31, cleared, 31 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 26, missed, 26 attempts
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 33, cleared, 33 attempts
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 19, missed, 19 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-18: 33, cleared, 33 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 34, cleared, 34 attempts
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 31, cleared, 31 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 28.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 22.4–37.8 passing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Over 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
NYJ allow 30.0 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 26th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.7 attempts · 2026: 29.5 (8 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN
Game lines
BUF −8 · total 51 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Over 28.5 cleared in 1 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Allen didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; passing attempts the last time Allen faced them: 25 (Sep 14, 2025)

Over 28.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Over 28.5

Average: 31; +2.5 vs line
Median: 32; +3.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5603 books	—	9/10
−2863 books	—	9/10
−1553 books	—	8/10
−1184 books	−1123 books	8/10
+1103 books	—	7/10
+1753 books	—	5/10
+2703 books	—	3/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
Bovada15 min ago	−115Best	−115
Bally Bet15 min ago	−118	—
betPARX15 min ago	−118	−110Best
BetRivers15 min ago	−120	−112
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

−125 → −118 since first seen