Jordan Love

Green Bay Packers · QB · #10

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1226 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

90%9 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at CHI, 2026-01-10: 4, cleared, 46 attempts
at MIN, 2026-09-13: 2, cleared, 42 attempts
at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 2, cleared, 29 attempts
vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 2, cleared, 53 attempts
at TB, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 30 attempts
vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 2, cleared, 31 attempts
vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 1, missed, 41 attempts
at DET, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 45 attempts
vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 41 attempts
at NE, 2026-11-08: 3, cleared, 29 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs quarterbacks
MIN allow 0.63 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: the fewest of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 38.3 attempts · 2026: 37.9 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at NE
Game lines
GB −3 · total 42 (8 sportsbooks)
GB's games this season closed at 46.8 on average (9 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIN

Passing TDs: 2 in 42 attempts, Sep 13 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −153

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −153, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7704 books	—	10/10
−1226 books	−1085 books	9/10
+3304 books	—	3/10
+12004 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−115Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−115Best	−113
BetRivers6 min ago	−117	−114
FanDuel6 min ago	−122	−108
Pinnacle6 min ago	−125	−106
Bovada6 min ago	−130	+100Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −125 → −122 since first seen