Jordan Love

Green Bay Packers · QB · #10

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1096 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at CHI, 2025-12-20: 0, missed, 13 attempts
at CHI, 2026-01-10: 4, cleared, 46 attempts
at MIN, 2026-09-13: 2, cleared, 42 attempts
at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 2, cleared, 29 attempts
vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 2, cleared, 53 attempts
at TB, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 30 attempts
vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 2, cleared, 31 attempts
vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 1, missed, 41 attempts
at DET, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 45 attempts
vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 41 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
NE allow 1.38 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 17th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 42.3 attempts · 2026: 39 (8 games)
Rest
9 days off since Oct 29 vs CAR
Game lines
GB +3 · total 45.5 (8 sportsbooks)
GB's games this season closed at 47.1 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −109
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7154 books	—	9/10
−1096 books	−1205 books	8/10
+3604 books	—	2/10
+12001 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel5 min ago	+100Best	−132
Bally Bet5 min ago	−108	—
betPARX6 min ago	−108	−120
BetRivers6 min ago	−109	−121
Bovada5 min ago	−110	−120
Pinnacle5 min ago	−112	−118Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −121 → −109 since first seen