Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under68.5

Under 68.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 68.5 Rushing Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at GB, 2025-12-27: 216, missed, 36 carries
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 126, missed, 20 carries
at IND, 2026-09-13: 144, missed, 24 carries
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 68, hit, 16 carries
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 89, missed, 26 carries
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 73, missed, 23 carries
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 102, missed, 24 carries
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 58, hit, 17 carries
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 45, hit, 17 carries
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 53, hit, 11 carries

Under hitMissedThe 68.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 25.6–108.3 rushing yards.

What's different today

Under 68.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs running backs
JAX allow 57.7 rushing yards a game to running backs: the fewest of 32
7 games
TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Out, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Under 68.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 10 of 36; with another BAL quarterback: 4 of 8
Carries
Last 3: 15 carries · 2026: 19.8 (8 games)

Splits

Under 68.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Under 68.5 hit in 1 of 2 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Rushing Yards: 153 in 19 carries, Jan 7, 2024 (home)

Under 68.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Under 68.5

Average: 97.4; +28.9 vs line
Median: 81; +12.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −106, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1901 book	+1451 book	3/10
−1864 books	—	3/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/10
−1155 books	−1144 books	4/10
−1094 books	—	4/10
−1131 book	−1131 book	4/10
+1501 book	−2001 book	5/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 68.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 68.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 68.5	Under 68.5
betPARX1 min ago	−115	−113Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−107Best	−113Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−117	−114
Bovada1 min ago	−110	−120
Bally Bet1 min ago	−115	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

68.5

72.5 → 68.5 since first seen