Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under77.5

Over 77.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1173 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 77.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at GB, 2025-12-27: 216, cleared, 36 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 126, cleared, 21 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 163, cleared, 25 carries + targets
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 87, cleared, 19 carries + targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 89, cleared, 27 carries + targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 79, cleared, 25 carries + targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 120, cleared, 26 carries + targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 60, missed, 18 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 49, missed, 19 carries + targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 60, missed, 13 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 77.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 25.9–121.9 rush+rec yards.

What's different today

Over 77.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs running backs
JAX allow 94.0 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: the fewest of 32
7 games
TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Out, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 77.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 28 of 36; with another BAL quarterback: 3 of 8
Carries + targets
Last 3: 16.7 carries + targets · 2026: 21.5 (8 games)
Target share: 6% last 3 games · 6% over 8 games this season

Splits

Over 77.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 77.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Rush+Rec Yards: 153 in 19 carries + targets, Jan 7, 2024 (home)

Over 77.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 77.5

Average: 104.9; +27.4 vs line
Median: 88; +10.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −102

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6253 books	—	9/10
−1363 books	—	7/10
−1173 books	−1132 books	7/10
−1152 books	−1151 book	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1131 book	−1131 book	6/10
+2153 books	—	4/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 77.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 77.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 77.5	Under 77.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−117Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	−117Best	−112Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−118	−113

Prices as of 3:06 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

77.5

83.5 → 77.5 since first seen