Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under80.5

Under 80.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1183 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 80.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at GB, 2025-12-27: 216, missed, 36 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 126, missed, 21 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 163, missed, 25 carries + targets
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 87, missed, 19 carries + targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 89, missed, 27 carries + targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 79, hit, 25 carries + targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 120, missed, 26 carries + targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 60, hit, 18 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 49, hit, 19 carries + targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 60, hit, 13 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 80.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 25.9–121.9 rush+rec yards.

What's different today

Under 80.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Injured Reserve (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Injured Reserve, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Under 80.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 9 of 36; with another BAL quarterback: 5 of 8
TodayDefense vs running backs
JAX allow 94.0 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: the fewest of 32
7 games
TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Carries + targets
Last 3: 16.7 carries + targets · 2026: 21.5 (8 games)
Target share: 6% last 3 games · 6% over 8 games this season

Splits

Under 80.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Under 80.5 hit in 1 of 2 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Rush+Rec Yards: 153 in 19 carries + targets, Jan 7, 2024 (home)

Under 80.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Under 80.5

Average: 104.9; +24.4 vs line
Median: 88; +7.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −115

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −115, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	1/10
−1503 books	—	3/10
−1171 book	—	4/10
−1123 books	−1182 books	4/10
−1101 book	−1201 book	4/10
−1131 book	−1131 book	4/10
+2003 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 80.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 80.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 80.5	Under 80.5
betPARX5 min ago	−112Best	−117Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−113	−118
Bally Bet7 min ago	−112Best	—

Prices as of 8:03 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

80.5

83.5 → 80.5 since first seen