Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Receptions, typical price −1046 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Doubtful, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 1.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 11 of 28; with another BAL quarterback: 1 of 7
TonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Defense vs running backs
JAX allow 5.3 receptions a game to running backs: 6th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 1.7 targets · 2026: 1.8 (8 games)
Target share: 6% last 3 games · 6% over 8 games this season

30%3 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

vs PIT, 2025-12-07: 1, missed, 2 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 0, missed, 1 targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 2 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 2 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 2 targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 2 targets

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Nov 19, 2023 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Targets: 1.7; 10 games · 1.6 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 46%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5304 books	—	9/10
−1046 books	−1344 books	3/10
+2804 books	—	1/10
+7504 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada1 min ago	+110Best	−145
FanDuel1 min ago	+106	−140
Pinnacle2 min ago	−102	−129
Bally Bet2 min ago	−106	—
betPARX1 min ago	−106	−124Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−107	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −111 → −104 since first seen