Christian McCaffrey
SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM
Game log against Under 14.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 6.7–16.9 rushing attempts.
What's different on Sunday
Under 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 14.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 11 of 33; with another SF quarterback: 4 of 9
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 23.7 carries a game to running backs: 11th most of 32
9 games
Carries
Last 3: 13.7 carries · 2026: 12.8 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV
Splits
Under 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 14.5
- Average
- 12.8
- −1.7 vs line
- Median
- 13
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −122
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −137
Research, not a pick. At −122 the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1063 books | −1221 book | 5/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 14.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 14.5 | Under 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX4 min ago | −106Best | −122Best |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −106Best | — |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −106Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
14.5No move since first seen