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Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers · RB · #23

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM
OverUnder32.5
Over 32.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 32.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 32.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

  1. at PHI, 2026-01-11: 66, cleared, 8 targets
  2. at SEA, 2026-01-17: 39, cleared, 6 targets
  3. at LAR, 2026-09-10: 20, missed, 8 targets
  4. vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 43, cleared, 4 targets
  5. vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 41, cleared, 5 targets
  6. vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 18, missed, 5 targets
  7. at SEA, 2026-10-11: 15, missed, 3 targets
  8. vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 53, cleared, 10 targets
  9. at ATL, 2026-10-25: 61, cleared, 7 targets
  10. vs LV, 2026-11-08: 19, missed, 3 targets
ClearedMissedThe 32.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 8.2–64.6 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 32.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Over 32.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 18 of 33; with another SF quarterback: 9 of 9

  • Defense vs running backs

    DAL allow 27.4 receiving yards a game to running backs: 24th most of 32

    9 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 5.6 (8 games)

    Target share: 21% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV

Splits

Over 32.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 32.5

Average
37.5
+5 vs line
Median
40
+7.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −109

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −109, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2201 book—6/10
−1484 books—6/10
−1141 book−1141 book6/10
−1143 books−1152 books6/10
−1141 book−1141 book6/10
+1484 books—5/10
+2954 books—3/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 32.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 32.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 32.5Under 32.5
Bally Bet14 min ago−114Best—
betPARX14 min ago−114Best−114Best
BetRivers14 min ago−115−115
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

32.5

No move since first seen

Christian McCaffrey's full game log and splits