Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers · RB · #23

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1305 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).

at PHI, 2026-01-11: 6, missed, 8 targets
at SEA, 2026-01-17: 5, missed, 6 targets
at LAR, 2026-09-10: 5, missed, 8 targets
vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 4 targets
vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 4, hit, 5 targets
vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 3, hit, 5 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-11: 3, hit, 3 targets
vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 9, missed, 10 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-25: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs LV, 2026-11-08: 2, hit, 3 targets

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 4.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 14 of 33; with another SF quarterback: 2 of 9
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 4.4 receptions a game to running backs: 16th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 5.6 (8 games)
Target share: 21% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 4.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −124 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	0/10
−6704 books	—	1/10
−2404 books	—	3/10
−1065 books	−1303 books	5/10
+1884 books	—	7/10
+3604 books	—	9/10
+7004 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
betPARX13 min ago	−106	−124Best
Pinnacle13 min ago	−102	−130
FanDuel12 min ago	+102Best	−136
Bally Bet13 min ago	−106	—
BetRivers13 min ago	−107	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −114 → −130 since first seen