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Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers · RB · #23

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM
OverUnder61.5
Under 61.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 61.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 61.5 Rushing Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

  1. at PHI, 2026-01-11: 48, hit, 15 carries
  2. at SEA, 2026-01-17: 35, hit, 11 carries
  3. at LAR, 2026-09-10: 68, missed, 10 carries
  4. vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 23, hit, 10 carries
  5. vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 75, missed, 15 carries
  6. vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 52, hit, 15 carries
  7. at SEA, 2026-10-11: 68, missed, 11 carries
  8. vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 64, missed, 16 carries
  9. at ATL, 2026-10-25: 39, hit, 7 carries
  10. vs LV, 2026-11-08: 68, missed, 18 carries
Under hitMissedThe 61.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 24.5–80.9 rushing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 61.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 61.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 10 of 33; with another SF quarterback: 7 of 9

  • Defense vs running backs

    DAL allow 112.8 rushing yards a game to running backs: 4th most of 32

    9 games

  • Carries

    Last 3: 13.7 carries · 2026: 12.8 (8 games)

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV

Splits

Under 61.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 61.5

Average
54
−7.5 vs line
Median
58
−3.5 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−6254 books—3/10
−2654 books—4/10
−1324 books—5/10
−1155 books−1144 books5/10
−1141 book−1141 book5/10
+1384 books—9/10
+2354 books—10/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 61.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 61.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 61.5Under 61.5
Bovada14 min ago−120−110Best
betPARX14 min ago−115−113
BetRivers14 min ago−117−114
Pinnacle14 min ago−114Best−114
Bally Bet14 min ago−115—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

61.5

No move since first seen

Christian McCaffrey's full game log and splits