Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers · RB · #23

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under96.5

Under 96.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1133 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 96.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at PHI, 2026-01-11: 114, missed, 23 carries + targets
at SEA, 2026-01-17: 74, hit, 17 carries + targets
at LAR, 2026-09-10: 88, hit, 18 carries + targets
vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 66, hit, 14 carries + targets
vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 116, missed, 20 carries + targets
vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 70, hit, 20 carries + targets
at SEA, 2026-10-11: 83, hit, 14 carries + targets
vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 117, missed, 26 carries + targets
at ATL, 2026-10-25: 100, missed, 14 carries + targets
vs LV, 2026-11-08: 87, hit, 21 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 96.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 48.1–104.5 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 96.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Brock Purdy led SF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 96.5 with Purdy at quarterback: 11 of 33; with another SF quarterback: 3 of 9
Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 140.2 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 6th most of 32
9 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 20.3 carries + targets · 2026: 18.4 (8 games)
Target share: 21% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV

Splits

Under 96.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 96.5

Average: 91.5; −5 vs line
Median: 87.5; −9 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −154, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4203 books	—	3/10
−1173 books	−1132 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1003 books	—	6/10
−1201 book	−1101 book	7/10
−1131 book	−1151 book	7/10
+3003 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 96.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 96.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 96.5	Under 96.5
betPARX6 min ago	−117Best	−112Best
BetRivers6 min ago	−117Best	−113
Bally Bet6 min ago	−117Best	—

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

96.5

98.5 → 96.5 since first seen