Carson Wentz

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #11

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under207.5

Under 207.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 207.5 Passing Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at SF, 2024-01-07: 163, hit, 24 attempts
at CLE, 2024-12-15: 20, hit, 2 attempts
at DEN, 2025-01-05: 98, hit, 17 attempts
vs CIN, 2025-09-21: 173, hit, 20 attempts
at PIT, 2025-09-28: 350, missed, 46 attempts
at CLE, 2025-10-05: 236, missed, 34 attempts
vs PHI, 2025-10-19: 313, missed, 42 attempts
at LAC, 2025-10-23: 144, hit, 27 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 133, hit, 19 attempts
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 143, hit, 20 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 207.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 49.9–335.2 passing yards.

What's different on Monday

Under 207.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 3 of his last 3 came before Wentz missed 5 games. Since he came back: Under 207.5 in no games.

MonBack from an absence
Monday's game is his 1st back after missing 5 games in a row (Sep 27 – Nov 1)
MonDefense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 269.0 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 3rd most of 32
7 games
MonPass attempts
Last 3: 22 attempts · 2025: 33.8 (5 games) · down 35%
New team
7 games with MIN; before that, KC
Under 207.5 with MIN: 4 of 7; his last 3 games before: 3 of 3

Splits

Under 207.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 207.5

Average: 177.3; −30.2 vs line
Median: 153.5; −54 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −122, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3154 books	—	7/10
−2653 books	—	7/10
−1434 books	—	7/10
−1133 books	−1152 books	7/10
—	—	7/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	7/10
+1404 books	—	7/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 207.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 207.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 207.5	Under 207.5
betPARX11 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers11 min ago	−114	−115Best
Bally Bet11 min ago	−113Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:53 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

207.5

204.5 → 207.5 since first seen